Following devastating tornadoes in the United States this week, many are wondering, are these events fuelled by climate change? While wildfires and extreme rainfall have direct links to a changing climate, things are a bit more complex with tornadoes.
Although the weather has a direct impact on tornado formation, indicating a tie to climate change, research directly linking the two has lagged behind on phenomena like hurricanes and wildfires. Part of the reason is the lack of data. The US has the most recorded tornadoes of any country in the world, but less than 10 percent of thunderstorms create tornado conditions and their unpredictable nature makes them difficult to study.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states, “The observational record is not consistent and relatively short, the models remain inconclusive as to replicating tornado activity, and our understanding of how global warming and climate change will influence the different atmospheric processes that produce tornadoes (wind shear, for example) is more limited.”
Despite this lack of data on the relationship between climate change and tornado frequency and strength, experts are able to tie a link between climate change and tornado location. John T. Allen, a professor of meteorology at Central Michigan University explains in a USA Today column that climate change is driving an “eastward shift in tornado frequency.” In addition to straying outside their usual locations in plains, the NOAA notes that climate change will also likely cause more tornadoes in the winter, rather than the summer, as winter temperatures rise and encourage thunderstorm conditions.
