BY THE OPTIMIST DAILY EDITORIAL TEAM
Cervical cancer fatalities among young women in the United States have dropped dramatically, marking a significant public health breakthrough. A new study, published in JAMA on the 27th of November, found that mortality rates for women under the age of 25 fell by 60 percent between 2013 and 2021. This discovery is a significant milestone and offers hope for a future in which HPV-related malignancies become increasingly infrequent.
“We had a hypothesis that since it’s been almost 16 years [since the vaccine was introduced], we might be starting to see the initial impact of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer deaths,” says Ashish Deshmukh, an epidemiologist at the Medical University of South Carolina. “And that’s exactly what we observed.”
While the vaccine’s direct impact cannot be definitively proved (the study did not monitor individual vaccination histories), the timing of the decline is consistent with the vaccination era, offering strong circumstantial evidence.
Unpacking the role of the HPV vaccine
Approved in 2006, the HPV vaccination targets a virus that causes up to six types of cancer, including cervical cancer. Deshmukh and his team examined nearly three decades of cervical cancer mortality data, divided into three-year intervals.
From 1992 to 2015, cervical cancer deaths among young women declined gradually by around four percent every three years, a trend likely driven by improved screening and preventive measures. However, beginning in 2013, the decline became noticeably more dramatic, with mortality rates dropping by over 60 percent by 2021, to just 0.007 fatalities per 100,000 women.
“They’re seeing this precipitous drop in mortality at the time that we would be expecting to see it due to vaccination,” says Emily Burger, a health economist at the University of Oslo. “This study is really supporting that conclusion.”
These findings are consistent with a 2023 Journal of the National Cancer Institute study, which revealed no cervical cancer cases among women who received the vaccine at ages 12 or 13.
What does this mean for the future?
Deshmukh points out that, while cervical cancer is uncommon in women under the age of 25, the findings provide an optimistic taste of what is possible if vaccination rates rise.
“The impact we are seeing is a [preview] of what we might observe in the next 20 to 30 years if we continue to improve vaccination rates,” he says. Women in their 30s and 40s, who have a considerably greater incidence of cervical cancer, have an enormous chance to reduce their fatalities.
Burger concurs, highlighting the larger implications: “Ultimately, we hope we are preventing mortality and death [with the introduction of vaccines].”
Challenges to vaccination rates and the path forward
Despite the promising figures, HPV vaccination rates in the United States have plateaued in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic had an impact, with coverage for teenagers aged 13 to 17 increasing only marginally, from 77 percent in 2022 to 76 percent in 2023, according to the CDC.
“When we look at HPV vaccination coverage in the U.S., we haven’t reached our goal,” Deshmukh says. The Department of Health and Human Services hopes to achieve 80 percent coverage by 2030, a goal that is still within reach but requires greater dedication.
Critical efforts include raising awareness of the vaccine’s benefits, eliminating myths, and expanding access to healthcare. This is especially crucial as the full potential of the HPV vaccine becomes more apparent.
“We have to do better in terms of improving vaccination rates,” he says. The sharp drop in cervical cancer fatalities among vaccinated young women demonstrates what is feasible — but getting there requires action now.
Source study: JAMA—Cervical cancer mortality among US women younger than 25 years, 1992-2021
