BY THE OPTIMIST DAILY EDITORIAL TEAM

Smoking in America is steadily declining, and young adults are at the forefront of this health transformation. A recent study by scientists at the University of California San Diego shows that younger generations are quitting cigarettes faster than ever before, especially in states where smoking rates were once highest. The data signals a turning point in a decades-long public health battle.

A generational divide

Published in JAMA Network Open, the study draws on data from the Tobacco Use Supplements to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. Researchers analyzed responses from 1.77 million people between June and October 2024.

According to this research, while cigarette use is down across all age groups, the difference in pace is striking: younger adults are ditching smoking rapidly, while those over 50 continue to quit at a much slower rate.

“The rapid decline in smoking among young adults is clear evidence that the smoking epidemic will come to an end in our lifetime,” said lead author Dr. Matthew Stone, assistant professor at the UC San Diego Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health.

Indeed, researchers project that national smoking prevalence could drop below five percent by 2035. Still, the slow progress among older adults, especially in states that historically had high smoking rates, means that smoking-related diseases like lung cancer and heart disease will take longer to decline.

Where we’ve been and where we’re going

America’s smoking story has changed dramatically. In 1955, nearly 57 percent of U.S. adults smoked. By 2000, that number had dropped by more than half. In 2022, it halved again. If today’s trends continue, the country is on track to reach fewer than five percent smokers by 2035.

Another powerful takeaway? The states that saw the sharpest reductions in smoking have also experienced the greatest decreases in lung cancer deaths, though often with a 16-year delay.

One concern fades, another emerges

While the drop in cigarette use is encouraging, researchers caution that another threat is gaining ground.

“The ongoing decline in cigarette smoking is a major public health success story,” said study co-author Dr. John P. Pierce. “Recent evidence suggests that the tobacco industry has successfully recruited a new generation of teenagers into e-cigarette use and nicotine addiction.”

That rise in vaping, especially among teens, raises new challenges for public health experts. Even as smoking becomes less common among young adults, today’s teenagers could be facing a different kind of addiction.

A smoke-free future

Decades of hard work through education, policy, and support programs have dramatically reshaped smoking habits. But to continue this momentum, it’s essential to:

• Accelerate cessation efforts for older adults
• Stay ahead of the vaping trend
• Adapt public health strategies for shifting tobacco landscapes

The future, however, looks bright. As younger generations continue to turn away from cigarettes, researchers and policymakers have a hopeful opportunity to ensure a healthier, smoke-free tomorrow.

Source study: JAMA Network Open— State and sociodemographic trends in US cigarette smoking with future projections