States across the US are facing the difficult decision of how and when to reopen society. States like South Carolina and Georgia are moving to reopen businesses this week while others, like California and Washington, are warier of reducing social distancing. Here’s why the post-COVID-19 plan can’t look the same for each state.
It is essentially inevitable that we will see some resurgence of cases when economic and social activities resume. The key is constraining these increases to a level that medical facilities can manage.
Although The White House’s plan recommends beginning to reopen 14 days after a decrease in new cases, states with dense populations or high infection rates like Washington and California say this is not a conservative enough measure to prevent an out of hand resurgence. Models like the one from the Harvard Chan School of Public Health recommend a timeline of three to four weeks of falling new infection rates before opening can commence.
Reintroducing business as usual also needs to account for demographic differences across entire regions. Coordinating policies across states account for spread due to travel over state lines. It also accounts for the differences in outbreak severity in different regions of the country. Beginning to reopen areas of rural Georgia is much more logical than unleashing a free for all in downtown Los Angeles.
Medical capabilities are another factor to consider. Assessing a state’s medical resources and hospital space in relation to their number of active cases significantly impacts when the business can recommence.
The US is such a large and demographically diverse country that determining policies on a state by state basis is the only feasible method for creating a reopening plan that works for the entire population. Although this will look different even down to the county level, increasing transparency and communication between local and state governments is the most effective tool we have for returning to normal life in a safe and cohesive manner.
