BY THE OPTIMIST DAILY EDITORIAL TEAM
After a sharp rise during the COVID-19 pandemic, diabetes-related deaths in the United States are beginning to fall again, according to new provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The figures suggest a return to a more hopeful trajectory after several challenging years.
Early death certificate data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics show a death rate of 26.4 per 100,000 people from diabetes during the third quarter of 2024. That marks a noticeable drop from the pandemic-era peak of 31.1 deaths per 100,000 in 2021, when diabetes was the eighth leading cause of death in the country.
The pandemic’s complex impact
Experts point to COVID-19’s devastating interaction with diabetes as a major factor behind the 2021 spike. “Data show an increase in mortality rates for all people during the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Dr. Christopher Holliday, director of the CDC’s Division of Diabetes Translation. “People with underlying conditions, including diabetes, are more likely to become very sick from COVID-19 and have a higher risk of hospitalization and death.”
But COVID-19’s influence went beyond infection. Holliday noted that the pandemic disrupted nearly every aspect of diabetes care—routines were interrupted, access to physical activity and medical appointments declined, and managing the disease became significantly more difficult for many Americans.
While 2021 saw more than 103,000 diabetes-related deaths—up over 17 percent from 2019—the preliminary tally for 2024 has dropped to 94,294. Still, Holliday cautioned, “While diabetes-related death rates have decreased since 2021, they have not returned to pre-pandemic levels.”
A deeper look at the numbers
Interpreting long-term trends in diabetes mortality is no simple task. Elizabeth Selvin, director of the Johns Hopkins Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, emphasized that most deaths among people with diabetes are actually cardiovascular in nature. As she explained, “Diabetes is a more common contributing cause of death, not the primary underlying cause.”
This complexity is compounded by how physicians code death certificates. “It is up to doctors to choose whether to select diabetes or other underlying health conditions as the cause of a heart attack death,” Selvin said. Variations in coding practices and disease definitions make year-over-year comparisons challenging.
Progress, but challenges remain
Before the pandemic, diabetes death rates had been steadily declining—even as diagnoses increased—thanks in part to better disease management and new treatments such as Ozempic and Mounjaro. According to the CDC, nearly one in ten adults in the U.S. had diagnosed diabetes as of 2023.
Though the recent drop in mortality signals a positive shift, experts stress the importance of vigilance. Continued improvements in access to care, medication, and education around managing diabetes are vital to ensure these downward trends continue.
Editor’s Note: The CDC report referenced in this article categorizes all diabetes-related deaths under the term diabetes (mellitus), including both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, without distinguishing between the two. While we strive for clarity in our reporting and acknowledge that these are distinct conditions, this story quotes the terminology provided by the CDC.
